Recognition of the flaws in the PACE Trial has become more substantial as a result of David Tuller’s investigative reports on Virology Blog. Rebecca Goldin, a Prof of Mathematical Sciences, has produced a 7000 word critique and Julie Rhmeyer has also written an essay – see below. James Coyne has blogged at length and George Faulkner has produced a substantial report for The Centre for Welfare Reforms, covering the role of the PACE Trial – “In the Expectation of Recovery” is downloadable at http://bit.ly/expect-recovery. An editorial in The Centre for Welfare Reforms refers to the issues discussed and an open letter to the Lancet http://www.virology.ws/2016/02/10/open-letter-lancet-again/ is signed by 44 professors and other significant people in ME/CFS.
An Editorial in Stats.org ( http://www.stats.org/editorial-on-pace/ ) explains the significance of what is at stake. – “The PACE trial was “rigorously designed,” according to CNN, and it was published in one of the most prestigious medical journals, The Lancet, so its conclusions not only had the power to affect the way the condition was treated, they had the power to set the agenda for further research, potentially foreclosing other approaches.
As a result of PACE, the UK’s National Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control, the Mayo Clinic, and Kaiser all ended up recommending cognitive behavioral therapy and exercise for ME/CFS. There is now a PACE-like trial in children—MAGENTA. PACE has become the paradigm for understanding a condition affecting millions of people.”……
The editorial continues – “Because we believe that study design is a critical issue in science, and because statistics is central to understanding study design, we felt it was important to look at PACE from this perspective….
The conclusion of Rebecca Goldin’s 7,000-word analysis on PACE’s design is this: “The best we can glean from PACE is that study design is essential to good science, and the flaws in this design were enough to doom its results from the start.” http://www.stats.org/pace-research-sparked-patient-rebellion-challenged-medicine/ PACE: The research that sparked a patient rebellion and challenged medicine by Rebecca Goldin | Mar 21, 2016 Rebecca Goldin is Professor of Mathematical Sciences at George Mason University and Director of STATS.org
The editorial in Sense about Statistics explains of Julie Rehmeyer – “Julie Rehmeyer, has written a powerful essay for our series “Epistemically Challenged” (over at Sense About Science USA) about her own experience of ME/CFS, and how it changed her view of science. As Rehmeyer is the most recent recipient of the American Statistical Association’s Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award (an honor we think Joseph Pulitzer would have considered equal to his eponymous prizes given his love of statistics), we took her criticism of PACE as another important alarm.” http://www.senseaboutscienceusa.org/epistemically-challenged-julie-rehmeyer/
David Tuller’s articles on PACE
David Tuller’s numerous article on ME/CFS and the PACE Trial on Virology Blog are listed and linked to at http://www.virology.ws/mecfs/
Trial By Error, Continued: Did the PACE Trial Really Prove that Graded Exercise Is Safe? (with Julie Rehmeyer)